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Goldman Doubles Q4 Profits as Strategy Shift Pays Off

Goldman Sachs doubled its fourth-quarter profits to $4.1 billion, driven by record equity trading performance and strong investment banking results. The bank's shares rose 2% as it exceeded most targets, with revenue reaching $13.87 billion and return on equity jumping to 14.6%. The successful quarter caps a year that saw Goldman's stock rise 48%, making it the best-performing major U.S. bank of 2024.

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JPMorgan Shatters Banking Profit Records in Banner Year

JPMorgan Chase achieved unprecedented success in 2024, setting a new American banking record with $58 billion in annual profits and a remarkable 50% jump in fourth-quarter earnings to $14 billion. The stellar performance was primarily driven by a revival in dealmaking and strong trading revenues, which rose 21% amid election-related market volatility. While the bank's consumer unit faced challenges with a 6% decline and increased credit card charge-offs, JPMorgan raised its 2025 net interest income guidance to $90 billion. The bank's success was part of a broader trend, with Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also reporting significant profit increases. Meanwhile, CEO Jamie Dimon addressed succession plans, indicating he expects to remain CEO for "a few more years" before transitioning to chairman, potentially serving the bank for "4-5 years or more."

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Markets Surge as Core Inflation Cools; Rate Cut Hopes Revive

US markets surged across the board following December's inflation report, which showed core CPI easing to 0.2% monthly growth after four consecutive months at 0.3%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow all climbed approximately 1.5%, while Treasury yields tumbled and the dollar weakened against major currencies. While market sentiment improved significantly, with swap traders now pricing in a July rate cut, analysts remain cautious. Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes that while the data strengthens the case for eventual cuts, the strong labor market gives the Fed room to be patient. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management suggests that while a January rate cut remains unlikely, the data should quell recent speculation about potential rate increases. Principal Asset Management adds that consecutive soft inflation prints and weaker payroll data would be needed to put a March cut back on the table.

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Price Pressures Ease in December, But Fed Remains Cautious

The latest inflation data showed a welcome moderation in core consumer prices, with December's 0.2% increase marking the first slowdown in six months. Key factors contributing to the cooler reading included cheaper hotel stays, modest rent increases, and slower growth in medical care service costs. However, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, requiring sustained evidence of inflation progress before adjusting their policy stance. The combination of this data with last week's robust jobs report suggests the Fed will maintain current rates at their January meeting, with markets pushing back expectations for rate cuts. BMO Capital Markets notes that potential tariff implementations could further complicate the inflation outlook.

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Core Inflation Posts First Decline Since July Despite Sticky Food Prices

December's inflation data showed encouraging signs of moderation, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually, marking the first deceleration since July. While headline inflation met expectations at 2.9% annually, the shelter index showed improvement, rising 4.6% annually - its smallest increase since January 2022. However, certain categories remained problematic, with used car prices rising 1.2%, energy costs jumping 2.6% monthly, and egg prices surging 3.2%. Markets welcomed the data, with Treasury yields falling below 4.7%, though concerns linger about potential inflationary pressures from Trump's proposed policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, as his inauguration approaches.

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