News
Silver's 44 Year Cup & Handle "Now, I Believe MID TO HIGH Triple Digits Are Baked in the Cake"
Dive into an epic financial adventure as we traverse through decades of silver pricing history, exploring striking chart patterns and bold predictions
Renewed Geopolitical Tensions and US Inflation Spike Reignite Currency Market Volatility
Currency market volatility is on the rise, driven by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and heightened inflation in the US. The recent attack by Iran on Israel and strong US inflation figures have led traders to speculate that the US dollar will strengthen, anticipating that the Federal Reserve might maintain stringent monetary policies longer than previously expected. This shift marks a significant change from just a month ago, when volatility was at multi-year lows, prompting speculation about a new era of stability in the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market.
Gold Prices Skyrocket, Yet Some Remain Cautious
The outlook for gold prices remains broadly positive, yet caution is warranted. Currently, gold is exhibiting an unusual correlation with the US dollar and both 5-year and 10-year US real yields—a relationship typically transient and lasting only about 3 to 6 months. Should gold prices align once more with central bank movements, stability against the US dollar and a modest rise against the euro are expected, reflecting divergent Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies. Despite these trends, the current supply of physical gold is adequate, and central bank purchasing levels do not fully support the high market prices. Consequently, the forecast for gold remains pegged at $2,000 per ounce by year-end.
China's Gold Reserves Climb as Market Faces Mixed Demand Dynamics
In March, China's gold market witnessed diverse trends: official reserves increased, while wholesale demand slightly decreased. The Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM price surged by 10%, significantly outperforming other local asset classes. Although there was a mild drop in gold leaving the Shanghai Gold Exchange due to high prices, the first quarter saw the highest wholesale gold demand since 2019. The premium on China’s gold prices declined in March, indicating softer local demand; however, the quarter overall experienced the highest Q1 premium on record, driven by strong physical demand in earlier months.
Deutsche Bank Joins Goldman Sachs in Bullish Gold Forecast
Deutsche Bank has increased its gold price forecast to $2,600 by the end of 2024. This follows a similar bullish adjustment by Goldman Sachs, who now expects gold to reach $2,700 per ounce. Both banks attribute their optimistic forecasts to substantial investment inflows and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly citing the Middle East conflict as reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe haven. The recent failed missile attack by Iran on Israel further boosts this sentiment. Deutsche Bank also notes that while some early investors might take profits, new investors are likely to enter the market, sustaining demand and supporting higher prices. This sentiment has contributed to a 20% increase in gold prices over the past two months, with expectations for continued upward movement.