News
MetalsDaily – We need to talk about China...
In his latest article on MetalsDaily.com, Ross Norman highlights the significant purchasing trends on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), which offer a glimpse into China's unique perspective on gold. Unlike the prevailing global view, China exhibits a distinct cognitive bias favoring gold, a stance not mirrored by weaker demand in other regions at current price levels. This discrepancy may stem from what's known as "false consensus bias," where people mistakenly believe others share their views. Norman's analysis suggests that understanding China's distinct market behavior is crucial for interpreting global gold trends.
US Treasury Yields Stabilize as Middle East Tensions Ease
After a significant rally, U.S. Treasuries have pared their gains following a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, which refocused attention on inflation expectations. The 10-year U.S. government bond yields dropped slightly by five basis points to 4.59%, nearly reversing an earlier 14 basis point decline. This change occurred after a senior Iranian official indicated that Iran would not immediately retaliate against Israel, easing fears of further conflict escalation. Despite this recent volatility reducing the impact of this year’s earlier sell-off, the 10-year Treasury is on track for a fourth consecutive week of losses. Investors are now anticipating a more gradual approach to monetary easing, reflected in the nearly one percentage point increase in bond yields from their late 2023 low, reaching levels last seen in November.
Global Concerns Rise Over U.S. Economy's Impact on World Currencies
During President Joe Biden's campaign tour in Pennsylvania, he praised the U.S. economy as the strongest globally, but international financial leaders meeting in Washington for the IMF-World Bank spring meetings voiced concerns. They urged moderation, highlighting how the robust U.S. economy, characterized by high interest rates and a strong dollar, has negatively impacted other countries by devaluing their currencies and complicating efforts to reduce borrowing costs. These sentiments were underscored by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who announced that expected rate cuts would be delayed due to persistent high U.S. inflation.
Middle East Tensions Stir Global Economic Concerns as Oil Prices Climb
Global central bankers are increasingly concerned about the Middle East's volatility and its potential to disrupt their efforts to control inflation. This anxiety was heightened when an Israeli attack on Iran caused crude oil prices to spike by more than 4%, surpassing $90 a barrel, although prices later stabilized somewhat. The incident underscores the delicate balance central bankers must maintain amidst geopolitical tensions that could reignite inflationary pressures. These developments come as world leaders, including UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, warn of the region's instability, and as top diplomats from the Group of Seven discuss global threats in Italy, all coinciding with the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington where the economic implications of these geopolitical tensions are a focal point.
Gold Prices Rise for Fifth Week Amid Iran-Israel Tensions
Gold prices continued their upward trend, marking a fifth consecutive week of gains as investors sought refuge in the safe-haven asset amid escalating Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel. On Friday, spot gold increased by 0.1% to $2,380.68 per ounce and had earlier reached up to $2,417.59. The overall gain for the week was over 1%. U.S. gold futures also saw a rise of 0.1%, standing at $2,396.60. Tensions heightened following reported explosions in an Iranian city, attributed to an Israeli attack, although Iran downplayed the incident, suggesting no immediate retaliation. Analyst Peter Fertig highlighted that these geopolitical uncertainties are bolstering gold's status as a safe-haven investment.