Gold prices are up as mixed economic signals emerged from the U.S., prompting optimism about a potential "soft landing" for the economy amid ongoing Federal Reserve efforts to combat inflation. The metal saw a 1% rise on Monday, recovering after two consecutive weeks of losses—the first since February. This rebound reflects investor reactions to a recent U.S. jobs report, which suggested a slowing economy and alleviated fears of a recession coupled with high inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that such data trends could support a case for easing monetary policy this year. Despite these challenges, gold has surged approximately 12% this year, bolstered by central bank purchases, demand from Asian markets, and safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions.

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium, a surge in price due to fears of a broader Middle East conflict, has disappeared as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased. With the diminished threat of conflict, market volatility has returned to multiyear lows, and the options market now leans towards puts, indicating reduced expectations of price spikes. Factors like interest rates, OPEC+ supply adjustments, and global demand now dominate pricing considerations. According to Tanvir Sandhu from Bloomberg Intelligence, the likelihood of Brent crude reaching $100 by the year's end has dropped significantly, from 17% to just 9%, reflecting a stabilization in the market and creating new trading opportunities.

U.S. Treasuries are generating substantial income for investors, marking a significant turnaround from nearly two decades of low returns due to zero-rate policies. As benchmark rates climbed from nearly 0% to over 5% within just two years, investors now see a reliable source of income in these government bonds. Last year, investors earned nearly $900 billion from U.S. government debt, a figure that's double the average of the previous decade. Moreover, over 90% of Treasuries now offer coupons of at least 4%, providing a strong buffer against potential rate hikes. This resurgence highlights Treasuries’ renewed role as a dependable economic staple, capable of delivering consistent annual returns.

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