During the pandemic, Americans saved an impressive $2.1 trillion, fueling sustained consumer spending and economic resilience amidst rising interest rates and persistent inflation. However, recent reports from San Francisco Federal Reserve economists Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Edgard Oliveira indicate that these pandemic-era savings are now depleted, with many Americans having more debt than savings as of March 2024. This shift from savings to debt raises concerns about the future of consumer spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy. With the depletion of excess savings and an increase in consumer debt and delinquencies, there are growing worries about potential economic downturns.

BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim predicts that a recession by early 2025, influenced by continued unemployment and economic difficulties in China, could lead to a 30% decline in the stock market. This view is echoed by Wall Street veteran Gary Shilling, who shared similar concerns with Business Insider. Ibrahim identifies two key factors that signal an impending recession by the end of this year or early next, potentially triggering a significant market correction.

In April, gold prices rose by 4%, closing at $2,307 per ounce, despite a pullback from intra-month highs due to reduced buyer interest and profit-taking, evidenced by lower Chinese premiums, decreased Indian imports, and stable COMEX positions. Conversely, North American gold ETF flows saw a modest increase, aligning with continued strong demand in Asian ETFs.

Inflation, while a key economic indicator, does not impact all demographics uniformly due to the aggregate nature of its measurement. Monthly inflation rates are calculated based on a general basket of goods which may not reflect the true spending habits of various groups, such as low-income or rural families. By examining disaggregated product groups and leveraging high-frequency online price data, researchers can uncover how inflation differentially affects diverse populations, revealing that the experience of inflation varies significantly among different groups.