Moderate U.S. Inflation Rise Suggests Fed Could Keep Rates Steady Until Fall

U.S. inflation edged up in March, meeting expectations and reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on interest rate cuts until September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% last month, the same as in February, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. This steady increase, in line with market forecasts, suggests that the central bank will maintain its current rate policy for the time being.

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Convergence of Gold and Dollar: Precursor to Stock Market Downturn?

The close movement between gold and the dollar, typically seen as defensive assets, is currently signaling a potential deep correction in the S&P 500. Historically, when these two assets converge in behavior, it often precedes significant downturns in the stock market, suggesting that investors should brace for possible declines.

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Dollar's Decline Fuels Gold's Advance; All Eyes on U.S. Economic Data

Gold prices experienced a notable increase on Thursday, primarily driven by a declining U.S. dollar. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, which could provide significant insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. As of midday in London, spot gold climbed 0.6% to reach $2,328.61 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures saw a modest rise of 0.1%, settling at $2,341.00 per ounce.

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U.S. GDP Growth Stumbles to 1.6% in Q1, Missing Economic Forecasts

The U.S. economy started the year on a weaker note than anticipated, with the GDP growth rate decelerating to 1.6% in the first quarter, as reported by the Commerce Department. This figure significantly undershot the 2.4% growth economists had projected based on surveys by Dow Jones. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which gauges the total output of goods and services, showed a marked slowdown from the 3.4% increase in the final quarter of 2023 and the 4.9% rise in the quarter before that. While consumer spending did grow by 2.5%, it was less robust compared to the 3.3% increase in the previous quarter and also fell short of the 3% expected by Wall Street analysts.

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