Gold is on track for a weekly loss as U.S. inflation worries dampen demand, despite a modest increase ahead of critical inflation data due this Friday. The anticipated personal consumption expenditures index is expected to confirm that March continued to see high price pressures. Heightened inflation has raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to lower borrowing costs, which has boosted Treasury yields—a negative for gold, which yields no interest. Compounding concerns, a recent report showing U.S. GDP growth falling short of expectations has reignited fears of stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation.

Traders are increasingly betting on the U.S. Federal Reserve initiating its first interest rate cut of the year in September, following a recent government inflation report. This report, which indicated that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% from February to March, has influenced interest rate futures prices. These now suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut during the Fed's mid-September meeting, a noticeable increase from the previous likelihood of less than 60%.

Inflation persisted in March, as revealed by the Federal Reserve's closely monitored personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 2.7%, according to the Commerce Department. Including these volatile categories, the overall PCE index also exceeded expectations, climbing 2.7% compared to a forecasted 2.6%. Despite these figures indicating sustained inflationary pressure, market response was muted, with Treasury yields dipping slightly and Wall Street poised for a positive open.

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